Comprehensive blood glucose level prediction from HbA1c levels using machine learning models across the biological range

Creative Commons License

OKYAY T. M., Yilmaz I., KOLDAŞ M.

Scientific Reports, cilt.16, sa.1, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 16 Sayı: 1
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1038/s41598-025-20234-z
  • Dergi Adı: Scientific Reports
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, BIOSIS, Chemical Abstracts Core, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Directory of Open Access Journals, Zoological Record, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Biological Science Database (ProQuest), Biomedical Reference Collection: Corporate Edition (EBSCO), Health Research Premium Collection (ProQuest)
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Glucose prediction, HbA(1c), Machine learning, Data augmentation, Transformation
  • Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
  • Sağlık Bilimleri Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Accurate blood glucose prediction from HbA1c is crucial for personalized health monitoring and diabetes management. Existing models often overlook data imbalances and hyperglycemic outliers, reducing accuracy. This study proposes a machine-learning framework to address these challenges. This study investigates a dataset of 197,180 patient samples, focusing on key features such as age, glucose, and HbA1c levels. The performance of 42 machine learning models was evaluated using Kernel Density Estimates (KDE) analysis and targeted oversampling to enhance model robustness. A Flask web application has been developed for deployment on the Heroku platform. Results show that the MLP Regressor achieved a moderate R2 with the raw data. Logarithmic transformation effectively reduced RMSE. Gaussian KDE identified a low-density region around 550 mg/dL in hyperglycemia, prompting targeted oversampling. This, combined with logarithmic transformation, resulted in an R2 of 0.93 and the lowest RMSE with the LGBM model, indicating strong predictive robustness for blood glucose levels. The proposed approach effectively enhances glucose level prediction accuracy in both healthy and diabetic management. The Heroku-deployed web app provides an accessible tool for clinicians and individuals, supporting real-time diabetes management and personalized health monitoring.